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Mispredicted Quality

The Predicted Quality page states that 74.5% of the quality of an episode is explained by four factors: who wrote the episode, who directed the episode, when the episode aired, and the presence or absence of major characters in the episode. That page showed how the episodes would be ranked if these four factors explained 100% of the quality of an episode.

Some of those predictions were well off. In some instances, the episode was predicted to be much better than it is. In other instances, it was predicted to be much worse than it really is. The lists below indicate the episodes that these four factors underrate the most, the episodes that these four factors overrate the most, and the episodes that are largely predicted accurately.

Episodes That Are Better than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be better liked than we would expect based on the four factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank		 Title Season/
Episode		 Actual
Points		 Predicted
Points		 Difference
1 Once More, with Feeling 6.07 123.06 100.53 22.53
2 Hush 4.10 115.54 95.38 20.16
21 Earshot 3.18 84.10 66.57 17.53
19 Something Blue 4.09 88.04 70.85 17.19
5 The Body 5.16 104.90 90.46 14.44
95 Buffy vs. Dracula 5.01 66.75 53.87 12.88
15 The Wish 3.09 91.76 79.65 12.11
8 Passion 2.17 98.08 86.25 11.83
17 Conversations with Dead People 7.07 89.52 77.74 11.78
25 The Prom 3.20 81.84 70.87 10.97
42 Welcome to the Hellmouth 1.01 74.37 63.65 10.72
3 The Gift 5.22 113.03 103.96 9.07
9 Tabula Rasa 6.08 95.53 86.78 8.75
27 Angel 1.07 80.82 72.67 8.15
37 This Year's Girl 4.15 75.21 67.89 7.32
54 Fear Itself 4.04 71.41 65.08 6.33
29 Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered 2.16 77.88 71.68 6.20
76 Smashed 6.09 68.34 62.68 5.66
99 Real Me 5.02 66.35 60.82 5.53
45 Primeval 4.21 72.76 67.50 5.26
51 Touched 7.20 72.00 66.77 5.23
112 I Was Made to Love You 5.15 64.55 59.53 5.02
48 Nightmares 1.10 72.36 67.74 4.62
68 Spiral 5.20 69.26 64.69 4.57
49 End of Days 7.21 72.19 67.65 4.54
26 Storyteller 7.16 80.93 76.40 4.53
41 The Zeppo 3.13 74.73 70.38 4.35
34 Halloween 2.06 76.69 72.38 4.31
31 Band Candy 3.06 77.63 73.37 4.26
4 Becoming, Part 2 2.22 112.51 108.28 4.23
28 Surprise 2.13 80.53 76.35 4.18
86 No Place Like Home 5.05 67.42 63.51 3.91
108 Gone 6.11 65.17 61.83 3.34
128 Goodbye Iowa 4.14 61.52 58.38 3.14
109 Sleeper 7.08 65.16 62.04 3.12
40 Enemies 3.17 74.94 72.09 2.85
105 Weight of the World 5.21 65.81 63.19 2.62
46 What's My Line? Part 2 2.10 72.72 70.12 2.60
134 As You Were 6.15 60.20 57.61 2.59
81 After Life 6.03 67.92 65.37 2.55
52 Villains 6.20 71.72 69.24 2.48
122 Beauty and the Beasts 3.04 63.41 60.95 2.46
132 All the Way 6.06 60.90 58.44 2.46
70 Faith, Hope & Trick 3.03 69.09 66.73 2.36
94 Revelations 3.07 66.77 64.70 2.07

Episodes That Are Weaker than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be less liked than we would expect based on the factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank		 Title Season/
Episode		 Actual
Points		 Predicted
Points		 Difference
142 Where the Wild Things Are 4.18 56.64 71.19 14.55
144 Doublemeat Palace 6.12 53.57 65.95 12.38
50 Family 5.06 72.14 84.38 12.24
33 Amends 3.10 76.97 89.04 12.07
82 A New Man 4.12 67.91 79.09 11.18
103 Bring On the Night 7.10 66.08 76.58 10.50
96 Anne 3.01 66.61 76.92 10.31
13 Innocence 2.14 92.34 102.14 9.80
65 Forever 5.17 69.67 78.43 8.76
133 Dead Man's Party 3.02 60.82 69.53 8.71
74 Consequences 3.15 68.55 76.77 8.22
64 Life Serial 6.05 70.11 77.25 7.14
104 Hell's Bells 6.16 65.97 72.97 7.00
113 Into the Woods 5.10 64.44 71.38 6.94
10 Graduation Day, Part 2 3.22 94.80 101.66 6.86
106 Invisible Girl 1.11 65.47 72.32 6.85
60 Checkpoint 5.12 70.51 77.35 6.84
130 Listening to Fear 5.09 61.13 67.33 6.20
62 Lie To Me 2.07 70.44 76.57 6.13
72 Dead Things 6.13 69.01 74.61 5.60
129 Shadow 5.08 61.46 66.96 5.50
140 Teacher's Pet 1.04 57.80 63.28 5.48
127 Wrecked 6.10 62.37 67.61 5.24
67 The Harvest 1.02 69.46 74.66 5.20
44 Pangs 4.08 73.01 78.10 5.09
58 Crush 5.14 70.85 75.91 5.06
11 Restless 4.22 94.47 99.34 4.87
73 Wild at Heart 4.06 68.99 73.84 4.85
75 Lessons 7.01 68.42 73.15 4.73
124 Doomed 4.11 63.20 67.90 4.70
135 Reptile Boy 2.05 59.30 63.77 4.47
91 Homecoming 3.05 67.05 71.52 4.47
143 I, Robot — You, Jane 1.08 55.48 59.95 4.47
35 Two to Go 6.21 75.66 79.84 4.18
97 Never Leave Me 7.09 66.60 70.66 4.06
79 Entropy 6.18 68.13 72.10 3.97
126 Flooded 6.04 62.41 66.37 3.96
80 Same Time, Same Place 7.03 68.12 72.07 3.95
101 The Freshman 4.01 66.24 69.99 3.75
69 Helpless 3.12 69.20 72.81 3.61
24 Lovers Walk 3.08 81.88 85.32 3.44
118 Living Conditions 4.02 63.72 67.07 3.35
43 Bad Girls 3.14 74.01 77.35 3.34
141 Bad Eggs 2.12 57.58 60.75 3.17
7 Becoming, Part 1 2.21 98.62 101.75 3.13
87 Blood Ties 5.13 67.34 70.37 3.03
56 Bargaining, Part 1 6.01 70.97 73.80 2.83
71 Triangle 5.11 69.06 71.85 2.79
139 Beer Bad 4.05 57.99 60.63 2.64
55 The Yoko Factor 4.20 71.04 73.45 2.41
121 Empty Places 7.19 63.45 65.75 2.30
136 Some Assembly Required 2.02 58.96 61.26 2.30
123 Out of My Mind 5.04 63.39 65.57 2.18
117 The Killer in Me 7.13 64.03 66.19 2.16

Most Accurately Predicted Episodes

That is, all episodes less than 2 points of their predicted point total

Overall
Rank		 Title Season/
Episode		 Actual
Points		 Predicted
Points		 Difference
93 Showtime 7.11 66.83 66.83 0.00
88 The Pack 1.06 67.13 67.07 0.06
36 School Hard 2.03 75.48 75.40 0.08
138 Go Fish 2.20 58.04 58.18 0.14
57 Bargaining, Part 2 6.02 70.95 71.19 0.24
30 Intervention 5.18 77.64 77.37 0.27
22 Grave 6.22 83.39 83.67 0.28
12 Doppelgängland 3.16 92.89 93.22 0.33
38 I Only Have Eyes For You 2.19 75.03 74.70 0.33
14 Prophecy Girl 1.12 91.83 92.26 0.43
115 First Date 7.14 64.20 64.78 0.58
20 Who Are You 4.16 84.98 84.39 0.59
119 Killed By Death 2.18 63.51 64.12 0.61
92 Phases 2.15 66.94 67.59 0.65
111 Potential 7.12 64.88 65.55 0.67
32 Normal Again 6.17 77.61 78.28 0.67
47 Lies My Parents Told Me 7.17 72.69 72.00 0.69
98 The Puppet Show 1.09 66.52 67.27 0.75
23 Selfless 7.05 82.30 83.11 0.81
6 Chosen 7.22 102.46 103.32 0.86
77 Choices 3.19 68.31 69.21 0.90
78 Tough Love 5.19 68.26 67.32 0.94
16 Fool for Love 5.07 91.41 92.37 0.96
61 New Moon Rising 4.19 70.47 69.50 0.97
125 Never Kill A Boy on the First Date 1.05 62.94 61.96 0.98
116 The Dark Age 2.08 64.12 63.10 1.02
90 Help 7.04 67.05 65.92 1.13
59 What's My Line? Part 1 2.09 70.56 69.40 1.16
100 Him 7.06 66.26 65.03 1.23
89 The Replacement 5.03 67.07 65.83 1.24
83 The Witch 1.03 67.88 69.23 1.35
53 Dirty Girls 7.18 71.57 72.93 1.36
107 Get It Done 7.15 65.35 63.98 1.37
110 Older and Far Away 6.14 65.07 63.53 1.54
114 Gingerbread 3.11 64.28 62.71 1.57
120 The I in Team 4.13 63.49 65.06 1.57
131 Ted 2.11 61.07 62.65 1.58
39 Seeing Red 6.19 74.98 73.38 1.60
63 Beneath You 7.02 70.22 71.86 1.64
84 The Harsh Light of Day 4.03 67.85 66.15 1.70
18 Graduation Day, Part 1 3.21 89.45 87.71 1.74
102 The Initiative 4.07 66.14 67.97 1.83
85 Superstar 4.17 67.53 69.39 1.86
137 Inca Mummy Girl 2.04 58.74 60.71 1.97
66 When She Was Bad 2.01 69.63 71.61 1.98
This page was last modified on June 28, 2005