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Mispredicted Quality

The Predicted Quality page states that 78.0% of the quality of an episode is explained by four factors: who wrote the episode, who directed the episode, when the episode aired, and the presence or absence of major characters in the episode. That page showed how the episodes would be ranked if these four factors explained 100% of the quality of an episode.

Some of those predictions were well off. In some instances, the episode was predicted to be much better than it is. In other instances, it was predicted to be much worse than it really is. The lists below indicate the episodes that these four factors underrate the most, the episodes that these four factors overrate the most, and the episodes that are largely predicted accurately.

Episodes That Are Better than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be better liked than we would expect based on the four factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
15 Reunion 2.10 67.70 58.57 9.13
2 Not Fade Away 5.22 81.55 72.50 9.05
6 Smile Time 5.14 76.16 67.36 8.80
65 I Got U Under My Skin 1.14 51.50 43.65 7.85
17 Birthday 3.11 65.12 57.45 7.67
55 Heartthrob 3.01 52.74 45.83 6.91
34 Through the Looking Glass 2.21 59.34 52.63 6.71
13 To Shanshu In L.A. 1.22 68.11 61.44 6.67
1 You're Welcome 5.12 85.17 78.57 6.60
31 Rain of Fire 4.07 60.39 53.82 6.57
5 Orpheus 4.15 77.65 71.42 6.23
39 Dear Boy 2.05 57.10 51.09 6.01
83 Sense and Sensitivity 1.06 48.48 43.04 5.44
87 Belonging 2.19 48.22 43.08 5.14
21 City Of 1.01 64.11 59.30 4.81
7 A Hole in the World 5.15 76.08 71.49 4.59
32 Epiphany 2.16 60.31 55.86 4.45
18 Sleep Tight 3.16 65.07 60.71 4.36
66 A New World 3.20 51.34 47.04 4.30
20 Destiny 5.08 64.76 60.53 4.23
88 Supersymmetry 4.05 48.18 44.06 4.12
93 War Zone 1.20 47.24 43.17 4.07
22 Billy 3.06 63.81 59.75 4.06
52 Fredless 3.05 53.46 49.72 3.74
35 Forgiving 3.17 59.08 55.39 3.69
70 Eternity 1.17 51.10 47.58 3.52
9 Spin the Bottle 4.06 71.13 67.78 3.35
89 Judgment 2.01 47.96 44.69 3.27
41 Calvary 4.12 56.52 53.35 3.17
98 Harm's Way 5.09 46.66 44.27 2.39
82 Dad 3.10 48.61 46.31 2.30
11 Lullaby 3.09 68.40 66.10 2.30
4 Five By Five 1.18 77.71 75.44 2.27
37 Dead End 2.18 58.09 55.86 2.23
48 Power Play 5.21 54.43 52.61 1.82
33 Lineage 5.07 59.68 57.88 1.80
43 Hellbound 5.04 55.83 54.11 1.72
92 The House Always Wins 4.03 47.30 45.61 1.69
61 Habeas Corpses 4.08 51.86 50.21 1.65
29 Origin 5.18 61.36 59.81 1.55
53 That Vision Thing 3.02 53.14 51.63 1.51

Episodes That Are Weaker than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be less liked than we would expect based on the factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
71 Conviction 5.01 50.69 62.83 12.14
57 Tomorrow 3.22 52.15 61.66 9.50
50 Somnambulist 1.11 53.80 63.10 9.30
86 Couplet 3.14 48.27 57.50 9.22
102 The Cautionary Tale of Numero Cinco 5.06 45.07 53.95 8.87
73 Offspring 3.07 50.49 59.32 8.83
100 Blood Money 2.12 45.77 53.62 7.85
75 Parting Gifts 1.10 49.89 56.92 7.02
44 Redefinition 2.11 55.44 62.20 6.75
30 Reprise 2.15 60.69 66.44 5.75
108 I Fall To Pieces 1.04 43.22 48.93 5.70
99 First Impressions 2.03 46.28 51.78 5.49
42 Release 4.14 55.89 61.37 5.47
79 Life of the Party 5.05 49.43 54.76 5.33
36 There's No Place Like Plrtz Glrb 2.22 58.65 63.56 4.90
72 Long Day's Journey 4.09 50.54 55.33 4.79
104 Why We Fight 5.13 44.65 49.15 4.50
80 Blind Date 1.21 49.43 53.88 4.45
69 Soul Purpose 5.10 51.13 55.31 4.17
67 Benediction 3.21 51.30 55.03 3.73
105 The Bachelor Party 1.07 43.91 47.43 3.52
14 Sanctuary 1.19 67.83 71.10 3.26
58 Time Bomb 5.19 52.12 55.37 3.24
46 Disharmony 2.17 55.04 58.23 3.18
77 The Girl in Question 5.20 49.66 52.84 3.18
85 Slouching Toward Bethlehem 4.04 48.28 51.33 3.04
107 Unleashed 5.03 43.41 46.39 2.98
40 Deep Down 4.01 56.69 59.53 2.83
81 Quickening 3.08 48.97 51.53 2.55
26 Salvage 4.13 62.52 64.95 2.43
106 Double or Nothing 3.18 43.60 45.90 2.30
68 Inside Out 4.17 51.22 53.49 2.26
109 Happy Anniversary 2.13 42.36 44.37 2.00
97 The Shroud Of Rahmon 2.08 46.73 48.72 1.98
110 She 1.13 42.24 44.23 1.98
76 The Price 3.19 49.79 51.77 1.97
78 Ground State 4.02 49.63 51.57 1.93
47 Awakening 4.10 54.85 56.47 1.61

Most Accurately Predicted Episodes

That is, all episodes less than 1.5 points of their predicted point total.

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
27 The Trial 2.09 62.21 62.05 0.16
54 The Magic Bullet 4.19 52.93 53.10 0.17
3 I Will Remember You 1.08 78.40 78.17 0.23
60 Underneath 5.17 51.87 52.14 0.27
90 Lonely Hearts 1.02 47.75 48.03 0.28
56 Peace Out 4.21 52.69 53.04 0.35
95 That Old Gang of Mine 3.03 46.97 47.42 0.45
94 Shiny Happy People 4.18 47.09 47.56 0.47
63 Untouched 2.04 51.60 51.11 0.49
101 Provider 3.12 45.34 44.84 0.50
64 Carpe Noctem 3.04 51.56 52.06 0.50
74 Sacrifice 4.20 50.37 50.91 0.54
28 Shells 5.16 61.59 61.04 0.55
8 Hero 1.09 72.39 71.84 0.55
25 Soulless 4.11 62.88 63.44 0.56
38 RM W/A VU 1.05 57.41 56.84 0.57
45 Guise Will Be Guise 2.06 55.34 55.91 0.57
96 The Thin Dead Line 2.14 46.93 47.50 0.57
49 Over The Rainbow 2.20 54.09 54.71 0.62
62 Just Rewards 5.02 51.69 51.04 0.65
84 The Ring 1.16 48.43 47.54 0.89
10 Darla 2.07 70.12 69.16 0.96
16 Damage 5.11 65.30 64.32 0.98
24 In The Dark 1.03 63.54 62.51 1.03
91 Players 4.16 47.66 46.63 1.03
12 Waiting in the Wings 3.13 68.32 69.41 1.09
51 Loyalty 3.15 53.71 54.85 1.14
23 Are You Now Or Have You Ever Been 2.02 63.74 62.58 1.16
103 Expecting 1.12 45.01 46.17 1.16
59 The Prodigal 1.15 52.07 53.26 1.19
19 Home 4.22 64.96 66.26 1.30
This page was last modified on August 23, 2004