The Predicted Quality page states that 73.3% of the quality of an episode is explained by four factors: who wrote the episode, who directed the episode, when the episode aired, and the presence or absence of major characters in the episode. That page showed how the episodes would be ranked if these four factors explained 100% of the quality of an episode.
Some of those predictions were well off. In some instances, the episode was predicted to be much better than it is. In other instances, it was predicted to be much worse than it really is. The lists below indicate the episodes that these four factors underrate the most, the episodes that these four factors overrate the most, and the episodes that are largely predicted accurately.
For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be better liked than we would expect based on the four factors that were measured.
Overall Rank |
Title | Season/ Episode |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Difference |
1 | Once More, with Feeling | 6.07 | 121.50 | 98.67 | 22.83 |
2 | Hush | 4.10 | 114.31 | 93.02 | 21.28 |
20 | Earshot | 3.18 | 84.54 | 67.36 | 17.18 |
5 | The Body | 5.16 | 105.12 | 90.39 | 14.73 |
7 | Passion | 2.17 | 99.05 | 85.12 | 13.93 |
100 | Buffy vs. Dracula | 5.01 | 66.53 | 54.38 | 12.15 |
14 | The Wish | 3.09 | 91.84 | 80.26 | 11.58 |
19 | Something Blue | 4.09 | 86.11 | 75.30 | 10.81 |
17 | Conversations with Dead People | 7.07 | 89.39 | 79.85 | 9.53 |
10 | Tabula Rasa | 6.08 | 94.74 | 85.53 | 9.21 |
3 | The Gift | 5.22 | 112.97 | 103.89 | 9.08 |
40 | Welcome to the Hellmouth | 1.01 | 74.06 | 65.19 | 8.88 |
24 | Angel | 1.07 | 80.72 | 72.87 | 7.86 |
38 | This Year's Girl | 4.15 | 74.72 | 67.22 | 7.49 |
26 | The Prom | 3.20 | 80.66 | 73.68 | 6.98 |
54 | Fear Itself | 4.04 | 71.59 | 64.83 | 6.76 |
55 | Touched | 7.20 | 71.09 | 64.68 | 6.41 |
130 | Goodbye Iowa | 4.14 | 62.26 | 55.93 | 6.33 |
81 | No Place like Home | 5.05 | 68.02 | 62.28 | 5.74 |
43 | Villains | 6.20 | 73.25 | 67.64 | 5.61 |
46 | The Zeppo | 3.13 | 73.09 | 67.75 | 5.34 |
41 | Enemies | 3.17 | 73.81 | 68.53 | 5.28 |
27 | Storyteller | 7.16 | 79.29 | 74.31 | 4.98 |
30 | Halloween | 2.06 | 77.51 | 72.57 | 4.93 |
32 | Band Candy | 3.06 | 77.42 | 72.55 | 4.86 |
79 | Smashed | 6.09 | 68.16 | 63.45 | 4.71 |
107 | Real Me | 5.02 | 65.71 | 61.14 | 4.57 |
18 | Graduation Day, Part 1 | 3.21 | 88.71 | 84.15 | 4.55 |
47 | Nightmares | 1.10 | 72.68 | 68.35 | 4.33 |
33 | Bewitched, Bothered and Bewildered | 2.16 | 76.82 | 72.70 | 4.11 |
131 | All the Way | 6.06 | 61.62 | 57.70 | 3.91 |
64 | Spiral | 5.20 | 70.23 | 66.46 | 3.77 |
48 | Primeval | 4.21 | 72.48 | 68.74 | 3.73 |
116 | I Was Made to Love You | 5.15 | 64.19 | 60.46 | 3.73 |
4 | Becoming, Pt. 2 | 2.22 | 111.73 | 108.20 | 3.53 |
28 | Surprise | 2.13 | 79.13 | 75.76 | 3.37 |
29 | Normal Again | 6.17 | 78.43 | 75.26 | 3.17 |
112 | Gone | 6.11 | 64.93 | 61.98 | 2.95 |
49 | What's My Line? Pt. 2 | 2.10 | 72.23 | 69.39 | 2.83 |
76 | After Life | 6.03 | 68.27 | 65.47 | 2.80 |
59 | End of Days | 7.21 | 70.55 | 67.95 | 2.60 |
126 | First Date | 7.14 | 63.04 | 60.47 | 2.57 |
101 | The Weight of the World | 5.21 | 66.47 | 63.92 | 2.55 |
71 | The Witch | 1.03 | 68.93 | 66.47 | 2.46 |
23 | Selfless | 7.05 | 83.40 | 80.97 | 2.43 |
62 | What's My Line? Pt. 1 | 2.09 | 70.32 | 68.23 | 2.08 |
For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be less liked than we would expect based on the factors that were measured.
Overall Rank |
Title | Season/ Episode |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Difference |
142 | Where the Wild Things Are | 4.18 | 56.61 | 76.42 | 19.80 |
36 | Amends | 3.10 | 76.25 | 89.76 | 13.52 |
50 | Family | 5.06 | 72.15 | 84.06 | 11.92 |
144 | Doublemeat Palace | 6.12 | 53.93 | 65.30 | 11.37 |
123 | Flooded | 6.04 | 63.26 | 74.56 | 11.30 |
95 | Anne | 3.01 | 66.91 | 76.84 | 9.93 |
12 | Innocence | 2.14 | 93.25 | 103.15 | 9.90 |
139 | Beer Bad | 4.05 | 57.78 | 67.52 | 9.74 |
133 | Dead Man's Party | 3.02 | 60.90 | 70.21 | 9.30 |
105 | Bring on the Night | 7.10 | 65.89 | 75.16 | 9.27 |
80 | Consequences | 3.15 | 68.11 | 77.16 | 9.04 |
66 | Forever | 5.17 | 70.01 | 78.56 | 8.55 |
85 | A New Man | 4.12 | 67.81 | 76.18 | 8.36 |
132 | Listening to Fear | 5.09 | 61.29 | 68.25 | 6.97 |
141 | Teacher's Pet | 1.04 | 57.26 | 64.05 | 6.79 |
9 | Graduation Day, Part 2 | 3.22 | 95.23 | 101.60 | 6.36 |
98 | Hell's Bells | 6.16 | 66.77 | 73.10 | 6.33 |
97 | Out of Mind, Out of Sight | 1.11 | 66.79 | 73.07 | 6.27 |
67 | The Harvest | 1.02 | 69.25 | 75.50 | 6.25 |
73 | Dead Things | 6.13 | 68.69 | 74.79 | 6.10 |
128 | Wrecked | 6.10 | 62.63 | 68.57 | 5.95 |
140 | Bad Eggs | 2.12 | 57.37 | 62.77 | 5.40 |
60 | Checkpoint | 5.12 | 70.53 | 75.89 | 5.37 |
57 | Lie to Me | 2.07 | 70.80 | 76.02 | 5.22 |
56 | Crush | 5.14 | 70.92 | 75.94 | 5.02 |
65 | Life Serial | 6.05 | 70.05 | 75.01 | 4.96 |
103 | Never Leave Me | 7.09 | 66.16 | 71.06 | 4.89 |
84 | Same Time, Same Place | 7.03 | 67.83 | 72.73 | 4.89 |
108 | Into the Woods | 5.10 | 65.27 | 70.14 | 4.87 |
45 | Bad Girls | 3.14 | 73.14 | 77.91 | 4.77 |
135 | Reptile Boy | 2.05 | 60.16 | 64.69 | 4.52 |
134 | As You Were | 6.15 | 60.54 | 64.98 | 4.44 |
69 | Wild at Heart | 4.06 | 69.07 | 73.27 | 4.21 |
8 | Becoming, Pt. 1 | 2.21 | 95.98 | 100.13 | 4.14 |
129 | Shadow | 5.08 | 62.35 | 66.23 | 3.88 |
68 | When She Was Bad | 2.01 | 69.24 | 73.11 | 3.87 |
11 | Restless | 4.22 | 93.97 | 97.78 | 3.81 |
143 | I Robot... You Jane | 1.08 | 55.38 | 58.86 | 3.48 |
42 | Pangs | 4.08 | 73.38 | 76.85 | 3.46 |
120 | Doomed | 4.11 | 63.85 | 67.25 | 3.41 |
70 | Triangle | 5.11 | 69.04 | 72.43 | 3.40 |
83 | Blood Ties | 5.13 | 67.84 | 70.95 | 3.11 |
63 | Helpless | 3.12 | 70.29 | 73.38 | 3.09 |
37 | Two to Go | 6.21 | 75.17 | 78.20 | 3.03 |
125 | Empty Places | 7.19 | 63.15 | 65.80 | 2.65 |
96 | The Freshman | 4.01 | 66.80 | 69.40 | 2.60 |
53 | Bargaining, Part 1 | 6.01 | 71.70 | 74.25 | 2.54 |
121 | Out of My Mind | 5.04 | 63.77 | 66.11 | 2.34 |
44 | Lies My Parents Told Me | 7.17 | 73.16 | 75.50 | 2.34 |
138 | Go Fish | 2.20 | 58.21 | 60.45 | 2.24 |
25 | Lovers Walk | 3.08 | 80.70 | 82.88 | 2.18 |
13 | Prophecy Girl | 1.12 | 92.37 | 94.52 | 2.15 |
86 | Lessons | 7.01 | 67.81 | 69.89 | 2.09 |
31 | Intervention | 5.18 | 77.45 | 79.47 | 2.02 |
That is, all episodes less than 2 points of their predicted point total
Overall Rank |
Title | Season/ Episode |
Actual Points |
Predicted Points |
Difference |
110 | Potential | 7.12 | 65.17 | 65.18 | 0.02 |
22 | Grave | 6.22 | 83.70 | 83.65 | 0.05 |
75 | Tough Love | 5.19 | 68.33 | 68.45 | 0.12 |
90 | Help | 7.04 | 67.47 | 67.32 | 0.15 |
58 | The Yoko Factor | 4.20 | 70.66 | 70.91 | 0.25 |
52 | Bargaining, Part 2 | 6.02 | 71.80 | 72.08 | 0.28 |
21 | Who Are You? | 4.16 | 84.52 | 84.82 | 0.30 |
113 | The Dark Age | 2.08 | 64.77 | 64.46 | 0.31 |
6 | Chosen | 7.22 | 101.51 | 101.85 | 0.34 |
99 | Him | 7.06 | 66.71 | 67.06 | 0.34 |
16 | Fool for Love | 5.07 | 90.69 | 90.33 | 0.36 |
72 | Faith, Hope & Trick | 3.03 | 68.91 | 68.46 | 0.45 |
104 | Superstar | 4.17 | 66.01 | 66.70 | 0.69 |
114 | Killed by Death | 2.18 | 64.62 | 63.91 | 0.71 |
61 | New Moon Rising | 4.19 | 70.51 | 69.78 | 0.73 |
88 | Showtime | 7.11 | 67.54 | 68.28 | 0.73 |
93 | The Replacement | 5.03 | 66.93 | 66.05 | 0.88 |
35 | School Hard | 2.03 | 76.59 | 75.71 | 0.88 |
74 | Beneath You | 7.02 | 68.53 | 67.53 | 1.00 |
118 | The I in Team | 4.13 | 63.97 | 64.97 | 1.00 |
106 | Older and Faraway | 6.14 | 65.87 | 64.81 | 1.07 |
127 | Ted | 2.11 | 62.72 | 63.81 | 1.09 |
111 | Get It Done | 7.15 | 64.98 | 66.08 | 1.10 |
51 | Dirty Girls | 7.18 | 71.93 | 73.06 | 1.13 |
115 | Gingerbread | 3.11 | 64.34 | 63.20 | 1.14 |
77 | Choices | 3.19 | 68.24 | 67.10 | 1.14 |
102 | The Initiative | 4.07 | 66.18 | 65.03 | 1.15 |
92 | Phases | 2.15 | 67.09 | 68.25 | 1.16 |
34 | I Only Have Eyes for You | 2.19 | 76.69 | 75.46 | 1.23 |
119 | The Killer in Me | 7.13 | 63.86 | 65.09 | 1.24 |
78 | The Harsh Light of Day | 4.03 | 68.21 | 66.95 | 1.27 |
87 | The Pack | 1.06 | 67.66 | 66.39 | 1.27 |
109 | Sleeper | 7.08 | 65.17 | 63.80 | 1.37 |
137 | Inca Mummy Girl | 2.04 | 58.72 | 57.28 | 1.44 |
94 | The Puppet Show | 1.09 | 66.91 | 68.36 | 1.44 |
39 | Seeing Red | 6.19 | 74.71 | 73.18 | 1.53 |
82 | Entropy | 6.18 | 67.84 | 69.39 | 1.54 |
122 | Never Kill a Boy on the First Date | 1.05 | 63.53 | 61.94 | 1.58 |
124 | Beauty & the Beasts | 3.04 | 63.25 | 61.66 | 1.60 |
89 | Homecoming | 3.05 | 67.54 | 69.20 | 1.65 |
91 | Revelations | 3.07 | 67.36 | 65.67 | 1.69 |
136 | Some Assembly Required | 2.02 | 59.27 | 61.08 | 1.81 |
117 | Living Conditions | 4.02 | 64.11 | 66.05 | 1.93 |
15 | Doppelgangland | 3.16 | 91.53 | 93.47 | 1.94 |