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Mispredicted Quality

The Predicted Quality page states that 73.3% of the quality of an episode is explained by four factors: who wrote the episode, who directed the episode, when the episode aired, and the presence or absence of major characters in the episode. That page showed how the episodes would be ranked if these four factors explained 100% of the quality of an episode.

Some of those predictions were well off. In some instances, the episode was predicted to be much better than it is. In other instances, it was predicted to be much worse than it really is. The lists below indicate the episodes that these four factors underrate the most, the episodes that these four factors overrate the most, and the episodes that are largely predicted accurately.

Episodes That Are Better than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be better liked than we would expect based on the four factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
1 Once More, with Feeling 6.07 121.50 98.67 22.83
2 Hush 4.10 114.31 93.02 21.28
20 Earshot 3.18 84.54 67.36 17.18
5 The Body 5.16 105.12 90.39 14.73
7 Passion 2.17 99.05 85.12 13.93
100 Buffy vs. Dracula 5.01 66.53 54.38 12.15
14 The Wish 3.09 91.84 80.26 11.58
19 Something Blue 4.09 86.11 75.30 10.81
17 Conversations with Dead People 7.07 89.39 79.85 9.53
10 Tabula Rasa 6.08 94.74 85.53 9.21
3 The Gift 5.22 112.97 103.89 9.08
40 Welcome to the Hellmouth 1.01 74.06 65.19 8.88
24 Angel 1.07 80.72 72.87 7.86
38 This Year's Girl 4.15 74.72 67.22 7.49
26 The Prom 3.20 80.66 73.68 6.98
54 Fear Itself 4.04 71.59 64.83 6.76
55 Touched 7.20 71.09 64.68 6.41
130 Goodbye Iowa 4.14 62.26 55.93 6.33
81 No Place like Home 5.05 68.02 62.28 5.74
43 Villains 6.20 73.25 67.64 5.61
46 The Zeppo 3.13 73.09 67.75 5.34
41 Enemies 3.17 73.81 68.53 5.28
27 Storyteller 7.16 79.29 74.31 4.98
30 Halloween 2.06 77.51 72.57 4.93
32 Band Candy 3.06 77.42 72.55 4.86
79 Smashed 6.09 68.16 63.45 4.71
107 Real Me 5.02 65.71 61.14 4.57
18 Graduation Day, Part 1 3.21 88.71 84.15 4.55
47 Nightmares 1.10 72.68 68.35 4.33
33 Bewitched, Bothered and Bewildered 2.16 76.82 72.70 4.11
131 All the Way 6.06 61.62 57.70 3.91
64 Spiral 5.20 70.23 66.46 3.77
48 Primeval 4.21 72.48 68.74 3.73
116 I Was Made to Love You 5.15 64.19 60.46 3.73
4 Becoming, Pt. 2 2.22 111.73 108.20 3.53
28 Surprise 2.13 79.13 75.76 3.37
29 Normal Again 6.17 78.43 75.26 3.17
112 Gone 6.11 64.93 61.98 2.95
49 What's My Line? Pt. 2 2.10 72.23 69.39 2.83
76 After Life 6.03 68.27 65.47 2.80
59 End of Days 7.21 70.55 67.95 2.60
126 First Date 7.14 63.04 60.47 2.57
101 The Weight of the World 5.21 66.47 63.92 2.55
71 The Witch 1.03 68.93 66.47 2.46
23 Selfless 7.05 83.40 80.97 2.43
62 What's My Line? Pt. 1 2.09 70.32 68.23 2.08

Episodes That Are Weaker than Predicted

For these episodes, there is an unmeasured quality that causes them to be less liked than we would expect based on the factors that were measured.

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
142 Where the Wild Things Are 4.18 56.61 76.42 19.80
36 Amends 3.10 76.25 89.76 13.52
50 Family 5.06 72.15 84.06 11.92
144 Doublemeat Palace 6.12 53.93 65.30 11.37
123 Flooded 6.04 63.26 74.56 11.30
95 Anne 3.01 66.91 76.84 9.93
12 Innocence 2.14 93.25 103.15 9.90
139 Beer Bad 4.05 57.78 67.52 9.74
133 Dead Man's Party 3.02 60.90 70.21 9.30
105 Bring on the Night 7.10 65.89 75.16 9.27
80 Consequences 3.15 68.11 77.16 9.04
66 Forever 5.17 70.01 78.56 8.55
85 A New Man 4.12 67.81 76.18 8.36
132 Listening to Fear 5.09 61.29 68.25 6.97
141 Teacher's Pet 1.04 57.26 64.05 6.79
9 Graduation Day, Part 2 3.22 95.23 101.60 6.36
98 Hell's Bells 6.16 66.77 73.10 6.33
97 Out of Mind, Out of Sight 1.11 66.79 73.07 6.27
67 The Harvest 1.02 69.25 75.50 6.25
73 Dead Things 6.13 68.69 74.79 6.10
128 Wrecked 6.10 62.63 68.57 5.95
140 Bad Eggs 2.12 57.37 62.77 5.40
60 Checkpoint 5.12 70.53 75.89 5.37
57 Lie to Me 2.07 70.80 76.02 5.22
56 Crush 5.14 70.92 75.94 5.02
65 Life Serial 6.05 70.05 75.01 4.96
103 Never Leave Me 7.09 66.16 71.06 4.89
84 Same Time, Same Place 7.03 67.83 72.73 4.89
108 Into the Woods 5.10 65.27 70.14 4.87
45 Bad Girls 3.14 73.14 77.91 4.77
135 Reptile Boy 2.05 60.16 64.69 4.52
134 As You Were 6.15 60.54 64.98 4.44
69 Wild at Heart 4.06 69.07 73.27 4.21
8 Becoming, Pt. 1 2.21 95.98 100.13 4.14
129 Shadow 5.08 62.35 66.23 3.88
68 When She Was Bad 2.01 69.24 73.11 3.87
11 Restless 4.22 93.97 97.78 3.81
143 I Robot... You Jane 1.08 55.38 58.86 3.48
42 Pangs 4.08 73.38 76.85 3.46
120 Doomed 4.11 63.85 67.25 3.41
70 Triangle 5.11 69.04 72.43 3.40
83 Blood Ties 5.13 67.84 70.95 3.11
63 Helpless 3.12 70.29 73.38 3.09
37 Two to Go 6.21 75.17 78.20 3.03
125 Empty Places 7.19 63.15 65.80 2.65
96 The Freshman 4.01 66.80 69.40 2.60
53 Bargaining, Part 1 6.01 71.70 74.25 2.54
121 Out of My Mind 5.04 63.77 66.11 2.34
44 Lies My Parents Told Me 7.17 73.16 75.50 2.34
138 Go Fish 2.20 58.21 60.45 2.24
25 Lovers Walk 3.08 80.70 82.88 2.18
13 Prophecy Girl 1.12 92.37 94.52 2.15
86 Lessons 7.01 67.81 69.89 2.09
31 Intervention 5.18 77.45 79.47 2.02

Most Accurately Predicted Episodes

That is, all episodes less than 2 points of their predicted point total

Overall
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Actual
Points
Predicted
Points
Difference
110 Potential 7.12 65.17 65.18 0.02
22 Grave 6.22 83.70 83.65 0.05
75 Tough Love 5.19 68.33 68.45 0.12
90 Help 7.04 67.47 67.32 0.15
58 The Yoko Factor 4.20 70.66 70.91 0.25
52 Bargaining, Part 2 6.02 71.80 72.08 0.28
21 Who Are You? 4.16 84.52 84.82 0.30
113 The Dark Age 2.08 64.77 64.46 0.31
6 Chosen 7.22 101.51 101.85 0.34
99 Him 7.06 66.71 67.06 0.34
16 Fool for Love 5.07 90.69 90.33 0.36
72 Faith, Hope & Trick 3.03 68.91 68.46 0.45
104 Superstar 4.17 66.01 66.70 0.69
114 Killed by Death 2.18 64.62 63.91 0.71
61 New Moon Rising 4.19 70.51 69.78 0.73
88 Showtime 7.11 67.54 68.28 0.73
93 The Replacement 5.03 66.93 66.05 0.88
35 School Hard 2.03 76.59 75.71 0.88
74 Beneath You 7.02 68.53 67.53 1.00
118 The I in Team 4.13 63.97 64.97 1.00
106 Older and Faraway 6.14 65.87 64.81 1.07
127 Ted 2.11 62.72 63.81 1.09
111 Get It Done 7.15 64.98 66.08 1.10
51 Dirty Girls 7.18 71.93 73.06 1.13
115 Gingerbread 3.11 64.34 63.20 1.14
77 Choices 3.19 68.24 67.10 1.14
102 The Initiative 4.07 66.18 65.03 1.15
92 Phases 2.15 67.09 68.25 1.16
34 I Only Have Eyes for You 2.19 76.69 75.46 1.23
119 The Killer in Me 7.13 63.86 65.09 1.24
78 The Harsh Light of Day 4.03 68.21 66.95 1.27
87 The Pack 1.06 67.66 66.39 1.27
109 Sleeper 7.08 65.17 63.80 1.37
137 Inca Mummy Girl 2.04 58.72 57.28 1.44
94 The Puppet Show 1.09 66.91 68.36 1.44
39 Seeing Red 6.19 74.71 73.18 1.53
82 Entropy 6.18 67.84 69.39 1.54
122 Never Kill a Boy on the First Date 1.05 63.53 61.94 1.58
124 Beauty & the Beasts 3.04 63.25 61.66 1.60
89 Homecoming 3.05 67.54 69.20 1.65
91 Revelations 3.07 67.36 65.67 1.69
136 Some Assembly Required 2.02 59.27 61.08 1.81
117 Living Conditions 4.02 64.11 66.05 1.93
15 Doppelgangland 3.16 91.53 93.47 1.94
This page was last modified on February 5, 2013