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Predicted Quality of Episodes

Once all analyses performed by this site are combined, we are able to predict 73.3% of the quality of an episode based on four factors: who wrote the episode, who directed the episode, when the episode aired, and the presence or absence of major characters in the episode. Altogether, knowing this allows us to look back at episodes and predict how the episodes would be ranked if these four factors explained 100% of the quality of an episode instead of just 73.3%. As you will see, this method predicts the quality of some episodes very well and is off on the quality of other episodes. The Mispredicted Quality page describes how close or far these predictions were for each episode.

Predicted
Rank
Title Season/
Episode
Writer(s) Director Actual
Rank
1 Becoming, Pt. 2 2.22 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 4
2 The Gift 5.22 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 3
3 Innocence 2.14 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 12
4 Chosen 7.22 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 6
5 Graduation Day, Part 2 3.22 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 9
6 Becoming, Pt. 1 2.21 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 8
7 Once More, with Feeling 6.07 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 1
8 Restless 4.22 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 11
9 Prophecy Girl 1.12 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 13
10 Doppelgangland 3.16 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 15
11 Hush 4.1 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 2
12 The Body 5.16 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 5
13 Fool for Love 5.07 Douglas Petrie Nick Marck 16
14 Amends 3.1 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 36
15 Tabula Rasa 6.08 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Grossman 10
16 Passion 2.17 Ty King Michael Gershman 7
17 Who Are You? 4.16 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 21
18 Graduation Day, Part 1 3.21 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 18
19 Family 5.06 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 50
20 Grave 6.22 David Fury James A. Contner 22
21 Lovers Walk 3.08 Dan Vebber David Semel 25
22 Selfless 7.05 Drew Goddard David Solomon 23
23 The Wish 3.09 Marti Noxon David Greenwalt 14
24 Conversations with Dead People 7.07 Jane Espenson and Drew Goddard Nick Marck 17
25 Intervention 5.18 Jane Espenson Michael Gershman 31
26 Forever 5.17 Marti Noxon Marti Noxon 66
27 Two to Go 6.21 Douglas Petrie Bill L. Norton 37
28 Bad Girls 3.14 Douglas Petrie Michael Lange 45
29 Consequences 3.15 Marti Noxon Michael Gershman 80
30 Pangs 4.08 Jane Espenson Michael Lange 42
31 Anne 3.01 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 95
32 Where the Wild Things Are 4.18 Tracey Forbes David Solomon 142
33 A New Man 4.12 Jane Espenson Michael Gershman 85
34 Lie to Me 2.07 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 57
35 Crush 5.14 David Fury Daniel Attias 56
36 Checkpoint 5.12 Douglas Petrie and Jane Espenson Nick Marck 60
37 Surprise 2.13 Marti Noxon Michael Lange 28
38 School Hard 2.03 David Greenwalt John T. Kretchmer 35
39 Lies My Parents Told Me 7.17 David Fury and Drew Goddard David Fury 44
40 The Harvest 1.02 Joss Whedon John T. Kretchmer 67
41 I Only Have Eyes for You 2.19 Marti Noxon James Whitmore Jr. 34
42 Something Blue 4.09 Tracey Forbes Nick Marck 19
43 Normal Again 6.17 Diego Gutiérrez Rick Rosenthal 29
44 Bring on the Night 7.1 Marti Noxon and Douglas Petrie David Grossman 105
45 Life Serial 6.05 David Fury and Jane Espenson Nick Marck 65
46 Dead Things 6.13 Steven S. DeKnight James A. Contner 73
47 Flooded 6.04 Douglas Petrie and Jane Espenson Douglas Petrie 123
48 Storyteller 7.16 Jane Espenson Marita Grabiak 27
49 Bargaining, Part 1 6.01 Marti Noxon David Grossman 53
50 The Prom 3.2 Marti Noxon David Solomon 26
51 Helpless 3.12 David Fury James A. Contner 63
52 Wild at Heart 4.06 Marti Noxon David Grossman 69
53 Seeing Red 6.19 Steven S. DeKnight Michael Gershman 39
54 When She Was Bad 2.01 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 68
55 Hell's Bells 6.16 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Solomon 98
56 Out of Mind, Out of Sight 1.11 Ashley Gable & Thomas A. Swyden Reza Badiyi 97
57 Dirty Girls 7.18 Drew Goddard Michael Gershman 51
58 Angel 1.07 David Greenwalt Scott Brazil 24
59 Same Time, Same Place 7.03 Jane Espenson James A. Contner 84
60 Bewitched, Bothered and Bewildered 2.16 Marti Noxon James A. Contner 33
61 Halloween 2.06 Carl Ellsworth Bruce Seth Green 30
62 Band Candy 3.06 Jane Espenson Michael Lange 32
63 Triangle 5.11 Jane Espenson Christopher Hibler 70
64 Bargaining, Part 2 6.02 David Fury David Grossman 52
65 Never Leave Me 7.09 Drew Goddard David Solomon 103
66 Blood Ties 5.13 Steven S. DeKnight Michael Gershman 83
67 The Yoko Factor 4.2 Douglas Petrie David Grossman 58
68 Dead Man's Party 3.02 Marti Noxon James Whitmore Jr. 133
69 Into the Woods 5.1 Marti Noxon Marti Noxon 108
70 Lessons 7.01 Joss Whedon David Solomon 86
71 New Moon Rising 4.19 Marti Noxon James A. Contner 61
72 The Freshman 4.01 Joss Whedon Joss Whedon 96
73 What's My Line? Pt. 2 2.1 Marti Noxon David Semel 49
74 Entropy 6.18 Drew Z. Greenberg James A. Contner 82
75 Homecoming 3.05 David Greenwalt David Greenwalt 89
76 Primeval 4.21 David Fury James A. Contner 48
77 Wrecked 6.1 Marti Noxon David Solomon 128
78 Enemies 3.17 Douglas Petrie David Grossman 41
79 Faith, Hope & Trick 3.03 David Greenwalt James A. Contner 72
80 Tough Love 5.19 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Grossman 75
81 The Puppet Show 1.09 Dean Batali & Rob Des Hotel Ellen S. Pressman 94
82 Nightmares 1.1 David Greenwalt Bruce Seth Green 47
83 Showtime 7.11 David Fury Michael Grossman 88
84 Listening to Fear 5.09 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Solomon 132
85 Phases 2.15 Rob Des Hotel & Dean Batali Bruce Seth Green 92
86 What's My Line? Pt. 1 2.09 Howard Gordon and Marti Noxon David Solomon 62
87 End of Days 7.21 Douglas Petrie and Jane Espenson Marita Grabiak 59
88 The Zeppo 3.13 Dan Vebber James Whitmore Jr. 46
89 Villains 6.2 Marti Noxon David Solomon 43
90 Beneath You 7.02 Douglas Petrie Nick Marck 74
91 Beer Bad 4.05 Tracey Forbes David Solomon 139
92 Earshot 3.18 Jane Espenson Regis Kimble 20
93 Help 7.04 Rebecca Rand Kirshner Rick Rosenthal 90
94 Doomed 4.11 Marti Noxon, David Fury, and Jane Espenson James A. Contner 120
95 This Year's Girl 4.15 Douglas Petrie Michael Gershman 38
96 Choices 3.19 David Fury James A. Contner 77
97 Him 7.06 Drew Z. Greenberg Michael Gershman 99
98 The Harsh Light of Day 4.03 Jane Espenson James A. Contner 78
99 Superstar 4.17 Jane Espenson David Grossman 104
100 The Witch 1.03 Dana Reston Stephen Cragg 71
101 Spiral 5.2 Steven S. DeKnight James A. Contner 64
102 The Pack 1.06 Matt Kiene & Joe Reinkemeyer Bruce Seth Green 87
103 Shadow 5.08 David Fury Daniel Attias 129
104 Out of My Mind 5.04 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Grossman 121
105 Get It Done 7.15 Douglas Petrie Douglas Petrie 111
106 The Replacement 5.03 Jane Espenson James A. Contner 93
107 Living Conditions 4.02 Marti Noxon David Grossman 117
108 Empty Places 7.19 Drew Z. Greenberg James A. Contner 125
109 Revelations 3.07 Douglas Petrie James A. Contner 91
110 After Life 6.03 Jane Espenson David Solomon 76
111 Doublemeat Palace 6.12 Jane Espenson Nick Marck 144
112 Welcome to the Hellmouth 1.01 Joss Whedon Charles Martin Smith 40
113 Potential 7.12 Rebecca Rand Kirshner James A. Contner 110
114 The Killer in Me 7.13 Drew Z. Greenberg David Solomon 119
115 The Initiative 4.07 Douglas Petrie James A. Contner 102
116 As You Were 6.15 Douglas Petrie Douglas Petrie 134
117 The I in Team 4.13 David Fury James A. Contner 118
118 Fear Itself 4.04 David Fury Tucker Gates 54
119 Older and Faraway 6.14 Drew Z. Greenberg Michael Gershman 106
120 Reptile Boy 2.05 David Greenwalt David Greenwalt 135
121 Touched 7.2 Rebecca Rand Kirshner David Solomon 55
122 The Dark Age 2.08 Dean Batali & Rob Des Hotel Bruce Seth Green 113
123 Teacher's Pet 1.04 David Greenwalt Bruce Seth Green 141
124 The Weight of the World 5.21 Douglas Petrie David Solomon 101
125 Killed by Death 2.18 Rob Des Hotel & Dean Batali Deran Sarafian 114
126 Ted 2.11 David Greenwalt and Joss Whedon Bruce Seth Green 127
127 Sleeper 7.08 David Fury and Jane Espenson Alan J. Levi 109
128 Smashed 6.09 Drew Z. Greenberg Turi Meyer 79
129 Gingerbread 3.11 Jane Espenson James Whitmore Jr. 115
130 Bad Eggs 2.12 Marti Noxon David Greenwalt 140
131 No Place like Home 5.05 Douglas Petrie David Solomon 81
132 Gone 6.11 David Fury David Fury 112
133 Never Kill a Boy on the First Date 1.05 Rob Des Hotel & Dean Batali David Semel 122
134 Beauty & the Beasts 3.04 Marti Noxon James Whitmore Jr. 124
135 Real Me 5.02 David Fury David Grossman 107
136 Some Assembly Required 2.02 Ty King Bruce Seth Green 136
137 First Date 7.14 Jane Espenson David Grossman 126
138 I Was Made to Love You 5.15 Jane Espenson James A. Contner 116
139 Go Fish 2.2 David Fury and Elin Hampton David Semel 138
140 I Robot... You Jane 1.08 Ashley Gable & Thomas A. Swyden Stephen L. Posey 143
141 All the Way 6.06 Steven S. DeKnight David Solomon 131
142 Inca Mummy Girl 2.04 Matt Kiene & Joe Reinkemeyer Ellen S. Pressman 137
143 Goodbye Iowa 4.14 Marti Noxon David Solomon 130
144 Buffy vs. Dracula 5.01 Marti Noxon David Solomon 100
This page was last modified on February 5, 2013